Markets Week Ahead: Fed and BoE Decisions, US Jobs Data, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon Report
The last week of January is traditionally very busy and this year is no different. The economic calendar is packed full of market-moving events including the latest Federal Reserve and Bank of England monetary policy decisions, US nonfarm payrolls, the first look at German and Euro Area Q4 growth, Chinese manufacturing and services PMIs, and German and Euro Area inflation data, to mention just a few.
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In addition to the economic calendar, a raft of US big tech companies release their latest Q4 results. On Tuesday, Alphabet (GOOG) and the world’s largest company Microsoft (MSFT) open their books, while on Thursday, three more of the Magnificent Seven, Amazon (AMZN), Apple (APPL), and Meta Platform (META) release their earnings after the market has closed.
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US equity markets continue to make fresh multi-year/decade/all-time records as investors remain firmly risk-on. The upcoming Big 7 earnings release will weigh on the indices, due to their heavy weighting, leaving markets at risk. Last week Tesla (TSLA) disappointed the market and slumped by around 12% after their earnings were released.
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Tesla Daily Price Chart
ECB Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged, EUR/USD Listless Ahead of Press Conference and US Q4 GDP
The Euro came under pressure last week despite the ECB leaving all monetary policy settings untouched. The markets are looking at Germany and the Euro Area and are now aggressively pricing in a series of interest rate cuts as economic growth in the region flatlines. Next week’s Euro Area and German GDP data will be closely monitored by the ECB and the market.
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Euro Rate Probabilities – Are Six 25bp ECB cuts on the cards?
The US dollar remains in focus but last week’s price action was listless. The US dollar index closed within a handful of pips of where it opened the week, despite a slightly better-than-expected US Core PCE report, and a robust advanced Q4 GDP release.
US Dollar Index Daily Chart
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Technical and Fundamental Forecasts – w/c January 22nd
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US Dollar Forecast: USD at the Mercy of the Fed, BoE and NFP Ahead
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Euro (EUR/USD) Weekly Outlook: Important GDP, Jobs and Inflation Data on the Docket Next Week
After a neutral ECB meeting on Thursday, next week sees some heavyweight EU economic data hit the screens including GDP, Inflation, and Jobs.
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The Pound and the Dollar will both look to their respective central banks this week. Market rate pricing probably poses the biggest risk.
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